Global Economic Crisis

Japan’s economy is in very deep crisis. The latest figures, reflecting economic performance from the April-June period, reveal official growth at a mere 0.1 percent, according to Japan’s Cabinet Office. This is far worse than even the miserable 0.6 percent that had been forecasted by economists.

The Q2 figures show that Japan is effectively back in an L shaped recession, plagued by domestic price deflation, shrinking internal demand despite massive debt-financed stimulus spending by the government, coupled to an export-killing appreciation in the value of the yen. In sum total, the world’s 2nd or 3rd largest economy (depending on how much trust one has in official Chinese government GDP statistics) is in a terrible state. And that is without even factoring in the growing probability that Tokyo will face a severe sovereign fiscal crisis. That is no mere conjecture; Japan’s prime minister has already warned that his country could face a public debt catastrophe as severe as in Greece.

If Japan is in dire economic straits, it is clear that the global economic crisis  is far from ending.

global economic crisis japan economic crisis, japan economy, japanese debt crisis, japanese economic crisis

Japan’s Finance Ministry has released trade figures for August, and is spinning a massive contraction in exports as “good” news. Well, perhaps Tokyo believes the latest data is evidence of good news, as imports declined even more, creating a modest trade surplus. However, the reality both figures present is that global trade remains weak, hardly an auspicious indicator of an end to the global economic crisis.

In August, Japan’s exports declined by 36% from August of 2008. Looking at the export figures in detail, shipments to the United States declined by 34.4%; to China by 27.6% and to the European Union by 45.9%. In spite of the clear collapse of Japan’s export machine, Tokyo still reported GDP growth in the last quarter, evidence that the recession has ended in Japan, or so the Finance Ministry would lead one to believe. However, those GDP growth figures only exist due to massive pump-priming by the government, which presides over the largest sovereign debt in the world, measured as a proportion of GDP.

In other negative signs that Japan’s economy remains moribund, the nation’s largest  air carrier, Japan Airlines, in on the verge of bankruptcy. JAL is on its knees, appealing to the new government in Tokyo to provide a bailout. It will be interesting to see if the new political power center in Tokyo will abide by its campaign promise to restrict corporate welfare in exchange for more public welfare, or cave in to the prospect of a major corporate failure.

global economic crisis japan economic crisis, japan economy, japan exports decline, japanese export figures

Official figures just released reveal that Japan’s unemployment rate has increased to 5.7%, its highest level since the end of the Second World War. To put this number in perspective, the number of Japanese workers unemployed is more than one million higher than one year ago. In addition, consumer prices continue to fall, continuing Japan’s dangerous deflationary spiral. Deflation is particularly feared in Japan, as this destructive economic force was responsible for the prolonged L shaped Japanese recession of the 1990s.

The horrible economic news will undoubtedly be the kiss of death for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, expected to go down to a humiliating landslide defeat in this weekend’s general election in Japan. However, it is doubtful if even a political transformation in Tokyo will bring quick relief to the Japanese economic crisis.

global economic crisis japan economy, japanese deflation, japanese economic crisis, japanese unemployment rate