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Posts Tagged ‘nouriel roubini’

Leading Economist Warns That Riots In U.S. A Sign Of Unsustainable Economic Alienation

June 24th, 2020 Comments off

In an article  in  Project Syndicate, economist Nouriel Roubini analyzes the outbreak of mass riots  in  the United States, triggered by the police killing of George Floyd.  Roubini argues that the rioting stems from a reaction to police brutality and racism, but have grown to encompass masses of young workers of all races alienated by a failing economic model

Paraphrasing Marx, Roubini makes the case that that the old proletariat has been replaced by a new class-the Precariat- made up of of gig and contract workers, economically exploited and deprived of stable and sustainable wages and benefits. The precarious state of this new proletariat, combined with rising wealth inequality in the U.S., has made mass rioting inevtiable, states Roubini. In effect, his point is that masses of largely young people in America have reached the breaking point of despair, leading to what is emerging as a summer of urban explosions.

I recommend reading Roubini’s article in  full; the link is  https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/main-street-manifesto-for-covid19-crisis-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-06?

Leading Economist Predicts Great Depression in the 1920s; COVID-19 Pandemic Exacerbates Negative Economic Forces, Unleashing Next Global Economic Crisis

April 29th, 2020 Comments off

In a startling forecast published in Project Syndicate entitled, “The Coming Greater Depression of the 1920s,” NYU economics professor Nouriel Roubini outlines ten negative trends that ensure the inevitability of a full-fledge economic depression sometime during the current decade. Professor Roubini achieved notoriety for predicting with uncanny accuracy the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09.

Roubini points out that even prior to the coronavirus pandemic there were downside trends involving structural issues left over from the financial crisis of 2007-09, coupled with deglobalization and the balkanization of supply chains, decoupling between China and the United States and other geopolitical rivalries, and environmental factors  such as climate change. What the COVID-19 pandemic has done is accelerate and magnify those negative trends, which already  have created a perfect storm, leading to a “greater depression” later on in the present decade.

The current economic crisis created by the coronavirus will bring about a severe, U shaped recession, which moist economists now believe will exceed the 2007-09 Global Financial Crisis in  severity. There will be no V shaped recovery, in Roubini’s view. The most chilling aspect of Professor Roubini’s forecast is that even if the COVID-19 enabled recession eventually has a U-shaped recovery, it will only be temporary, with a 21st century Great Depression to follow in its wake, making the 1920s  a time of Global Economic Crisis, with prospects of recovery being differed until the 1930s, all predicated on new technologies and the emergence of more competent political leadership.

Global Economy On The Abyss of a Greater Depression Says Leading Economist Nouriel Roubini

March 25th, 2020 Comments off

In a chilling yet cogently delivered live Twitter lecture on likely economic trends stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic, NYU professor and economist Nouriel Roubini gave a harsh yet realistic overview on the unfolding crisis. Professor Roubini was one of the few economists to predict the global financial crisis that occurred more than a decade ago.

The views Roubini relayed in his Twitter presentation can be summed up as follows:

  1. The health policy response will determine whether or not the world faces a severe recession or a greater depression. A global recession worse than the 2007-09 global financial crisis is already baked into the cake. However, perusing a mitigation strategy to contain the coronavirus pandemic will ensure the global economy heads into a severe depression. Only a suppression strategy as implemented by China initially and now Italy can prevent the worst economic damage. Though a suppression strategy that shuts down the economy for 2 or 3 months is very painful, a mitigation strategy will ensure that Covid-19 spreads like wildfire, leading to a temporary reopening of the economy followed by further and deeper shutdowns. Roubini urges policymakers to adapt draconian suppression measures as the only alternative to far more calamitous economic collapse.
  2. The right policy responses will be crucial to preventing a greater depression. The current wave of unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures, adapted in a very short timeframe, are correct. In particular , very large fiscal deficits equivalent to ten percent of GDP, which in turn are fully monetized by the central banks, are necessary in the short-term. However, such extraordinary measures are unsustainable in the long-term, and will lead to stagflation.
  3. The health emergency crippling the global economy is not the only shock confronting it. Roubini identified a geopolitical depression exacerbated by revisionist powers (China, Russia, Iran and North Korea) seeking to further destabilize the United States through cyber warfare. In particular, the emerging cold war between China and the U.S. is leading to decoupling of supply chains and de-globalization, which will increase costs of production and hence inflation.
  4. Professor Roubini sees a great risk that Iran’s regime will initiate a full-scale war with the United States as the only means of preserving itself from being overthrown, if Trump is reelected and the economic sanctions lead to its collapse. Such conflict will close the straits of Hormuz, leading to a massive spike in oil prices.

In summary, a sobering and harshly realistic analysis of the global economic crisis now underway.

Economist Nouriel Roubini Warns Emerging Global Economic Crisis Will Be Possibly Worse Than Great Depression

March 24th, 2020 Comments off

Perhaps the most insightful economist to watch as the Global Economic Crisis unleashed by the Covid-19 pandemic rages is Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at New York University. In the months leading up to the 2008 global financial crisis , his predictions were eerily accurate. Now he has published an essay on what is unfolding regarding the Coronavirus pandemic induced economic disaster on the Project Syndicate website, entitled ominously “A Greater Depression?”

I urge ever sensible person to read it; the link is: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coronavirus-greater-great-depression-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-03?

 

Among the points Professor Roubini makes is that the collapse in stock markets has greatly exceed in velocity not only what occurred during the global financial crisis of 2008, but also during the Great Depression during the 1930s. While other prognosticators are predicting a U or L or worst case V trajectory and recovery, Roubini views such happy talk as delusional. He sees every indicator as pointing to a global economy in unrestrained free fall. The hope for an eventual recovery lies in a host of unconventional monetary and fiscal measures. However, as he observes, there are a host of probable white swan events and negative political realities that will likely obstruct the unprecedented policymaking the now full-fledged Global Economic Crisis requires.

 

Coronavirus Threatens To Unleash Next Global Economic Crisis

March 6th, 2020 Comments off

 

In 2007,just before the last great worldwide financial and economic crisis was unleashed, a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb was published entitled The Black Swan. It explored how unpredictable and outlier can events can unleash extreme impacts of greave consequence. Though Taleb’s book foretold of the Global Financial Crisis that was about to occur, it is just as prescient regarding the unleashing of the Corona virus and its increasingly devastating impact on the global economy.

Seemingly out of nowhere, Corona virus, specifically the strain identified as Covid-19, began spreading like wildfire towards the end of 2019 in Wuhan, China. Since then, it has been occurring in dozens of countries, leading health authorities worldwide to label Covid-19 a pandemic. And though we are only in the early stages of the outbreak, the global economy is already in dire straits.

Stock markets are plummeting, global supply chains are being disrupted, the travel and tourism and related industries are being devastated, and economic fear is becoming as contagious as Covid-19 spread with virulence.

The economist noted for predicting  the 2007-2008 financial collapse, Nouriel Roubini, otherwise known as “Dr. Doom,” is now predicting massive economic collapse as the Corona virus spreads and intensifies. In his views, any equity recoveries are only temporary and the worst is ahead of us, with stock markets possibly contracting by 40 percent or more. Other elements, which Roubini describes as Whites Swans, such as tension with Iran and the China-U.S. trade war, will further exacerbate the economic consequences of Covid-19.

This is not a mere correction or cyclical recession that is being discussed, but a global economic depression of massive proportions. Central banks are already slashing interest rates to near zero, and other signs of panic are setting in. The next Global Economic Crisis appears to be just ahead, with the world geopolitically far more divided and conflicted than was the case back in 2008.

 

Nouriel Roubini Sees Sino-American Tension Driving Risk of Global Recession in 2020

June 22nd, 2019 Comments off

 

He was dubbed “Dr. Doom”  for his uncanny and highly accurate prediction of the 2008 global financial crisis and global recession. Now, Roubini is again making dire predictions of a catastrophic global economic recession. This time, however, the decisive driver of the meltdown won’t be subprime mortgages but rather the increasingly tense relationship between the two largest economies in the world – America and China.

In an article for Project Syndicate entitled, ” The Coming Sino-American Bust Up,” the noted economist  writes,  “Whether or not US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agree to another truce at the upcoming G20 summit in Osaka, the Sino-American conflict has already entered a dangerous new phase. Though a negotiated settlement or a managed continuation of the status quo are possible, a sharp escalation is now the most likely scenario.

Roubini sees a global recession occurring as soon as 2020, a predictions that other economists have also prognosticated on. With the previous global economic crisis of 2008 having consumed all the policy perceptions that central  banks and sovereign fiscal stimulus had available for decision makers, the coming global economic recession will find policy makers with  few silver billets remaining. In the meantime, nationalism may replace rational economics in determining the course of the next recession, which Nouriel Roubini believes will be largely determined by the increasingly strife-ridden relationship between the United States and China.

Sheldon Filger-blogger for GlobalEconomicCrisis.com

Dr. Doom Redux: Nouriel Roubini Warns Of Perfect Economic Storm in 2013

July 23rd, 2012 Comments off

He emerged in the months prior to the global financial and economic crisis that erupted in the fall of 2008, warning of a deadly convergence of worrying economic and financial dangers. Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at New York University and owner of his own consultancy firm, issued warnings  that in retrospect seem almost magically prescient. Roubini’s prediction that the contraction in housing prices in the U.S. housing market would metastasize into a devastating financial hurricane seemed so incomprehensively dire, the pundits and eternal optimists on Wall Street dubbed him with the moniker of “Dr. Doom.”

For those not punch-drunk on Wall Street’s propaganda, Nouriel Roubini even issued what amounted to as a checklist of discrete steps that would occur until the investment banks imploded, leading to a fiscal Armageddon. During the summer of 2008, the checkmarks on Roubini’s list of foreboding prognostications accumulated, until Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, and the global economic crisis erupted with fury as credit markets worldwide went into cardiac arrest.

Now, four years later, Roubini is back with his prophecies of gloom and foreboding for the global economy. Dr. Doom has taken to the airwaves, warning policymakers as well as the public that there is a high probability that a perfect economic and fiscal storm will erupt in 2013. Essentially, Roubini’s forecast is as follows; until the November U.S. presidential elections  of this year, there will be a deceptive calm before the storm, as every major economy plagued with severe fiscal problems continues to kick the can down the road. Come 2013, there will be a convergence of several major negative metrics. These include the worsening Eurozone debt crisis, likely leading to the exit of Greece from the monetary union. China will face a hard economic landing, and the United States, its economic growth and job creation performance already anemic, will face a high probability of a renewed economic recession, particularly in a political environment favoring austerity. In addition to those economic factors, there is one other element in the turbulent brew that comprises Roubini’s prediction of a perfect economic storm in 2013; Iran. If the Iranian nuclear issue is not resolved peacefully, which at present seems highly doubtful, there is a high probability of a military conflict occurring in the region, which will add further strains upon the global economy, particularly if oil prices spike to highly elevated levels.

Dr. Doom is back, with  a characteristically gloom-laden warning about likely economic trends for 2013. Unlike the pontificators among the politicians, Wall Street glad handlers and central bankers, Roubini’s analysis of future economic trends does have the virtue of reasoned logic  as opposed to overly-optimistic rhetoric. Finally, Nouriel Roubini’s record in predicting future trends impacting the global economy and financial system has been inherently more reliable than the forecasts offered by the U.S. Federal Reserve, as well as by the policymakers in America and Europe.

 

WALL STREET KILLS--A CHILLING NOVEL ABOUT WALL STREET GREED GONE MAD

 To view and listen to the YouTube video audio excerpt  “Wall Street Kills,” click image below:

 

 

Sex, murder, financial power and pathological greed come together in the explosive suspense thriller by Sheldon Filger, WALL STREET KILLS: A NOVEL ABOUT FINANCIAL POWER, VIOLENT SEX AND THE ULTIMATE SNUFF MOVIE.
This video provides a free audio reading from chapter one of “Wall Street Kills.” The scene depicted involves two characters from “Wall Street Kills” having a business conversation in a Los Angeles suburb. One character is Peter Hoffman, director of new business development for a secretive Wall Street hedge fund and private equity group. The other character is Daniel Iachino, president of a major independent film company specializing in “adult entertainment” for niche markets. Hoffman is on a mission to investigate if portraying unsimulated violent death in the form of entertainment would be a lucrative business investment. The conversation between the two men quickly focuses on the phenomenon of snuff movies.

 

 

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European Central Bank Begins Monetization To Stem Eurozone Debt And Banking Crisis

December 22nd, 2011 Comments off

It appears that the ECB is abandoning its policy of monetary prudence, and imitating U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in running its printing press wildly. Mario Draghi, ECB boss, has made available cheap loans to European banks experiencing liquidity problems. In response, more than 500 European banks stampeded to the ECB discount window, and have borrowed nearly 490 billion euros, equivalent to $643 billion USD at current exchange rates. Clearly, the European banks had desperate need for new capital, while the Eurozone politicos hope the banks will use the newly minted euros to buy European sovereign debt.

Nouriel Roubini I think described this rather nicely as in essence quantitative easing and stealth debt monetization. As with Ben Bernanke’s repeated bouts of money printing, I don’t think this new loose monetary policy by Mario Draghi will avail itself of any meaningful results. Since the global financial and economic crisis was unleashed in 2008, money printing by central banks has been a symptom of the problem, not its solution.

 

 

 

                 

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Officer Larry of the NYPD is on his way to Zuccotti Park in lower Manhattan to arrest peaceful protesters involved with the Occupy Wall Street movement. Being a public spirited member of the New York Police Department, Officer Larry does remind us that there is a global economic crisis underway that rivals the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Eurozone Debt Crisis: Another Failed Bailout Scheme?

October 27th, 2011 Comments off

Once again, as they have already done countless times before since the emergence of the European sovereign debt crisis, the 27 political head honchos of the European Union have once again boasted that they have saved the global economy from collapse with finally, the real definitive cure for the crisis. However, the only thing really distinct with this latest version of the EU cure is that the numbers are much larger. The politicos claim that they have received agreement from impacted banks to  write off 50 percent of the value of outstanding loans to Greece. Banks in turn will receive recapitalization from the EU. And perhaps most striking in terms of attempting to win investor confidence, the value of the EFSF, or Eurozone bailout fund, will expand from just over $400 billion to around $ 1.4 trillion. No wonder the European politicians are patting themselves on the back, while predictably stock exchanges across the globe are rallying to new, dizzying heights.

So, should we believe that this time, after so many failed attempts also advertised as the real solution, the politicians have finally got it right? I don’t think so. The massive write-down of Greek debt will jeopardize the financial solvency of many European banks, requiring massive recapitalization. That is supposedly why the European Financial Stability Facility is being expanded to a level of one trillion euros. But where will the Europeans get this money? From the same banks they will need to bail out? From investors already spooked by a 50 percent write-down on Greek debt? From China?  From already over-leveraged German taxpayers? In the meantime, the other PIIGS nations are on the brink of insolvency (Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain), not to mention fragile eastern European economies, which nobody in the EU will even discuss. No wonder the agreement announced in  Brussels is lacking in specific details.

Nouriel Roubini  tweeted this morning, “Little in EZ plan to restore growth/competitiveness. Without it financial schemes (greek haircut, bank recap, levered EFSF) alone will fail.” Professor Roubini has had a far more reliable track record in predicting the trajectory of the global economic crisis then all the 27 EU political leaders and their army of economic and financial advisors combined. The fact that Nouriel Roubini is already predicting that the EU’s latest bailout plan will fail is far more significant, in my view, then all the stock market rallies being fed by the latest self-congratulatory propaganda coming out of Brussels.

                 

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Officer Larry of the NYPD is on his way to Zuccotti Park in lower Manhattan to arrest peaceful protesters involved with the Occupy Wall Street movement. Being a public spirited member of the New York Police Department, Officer Larry does remind us that there is a global economic crisis underway that rivals the Great Depression of the 1930s.
 
 
 

 

Global Economic Outlook Is Increasingly Gloomy

August 22nd, 2011 Comments off

 

It is no longer a small group of prognosticators (including this blog) who are expressing grim thoughts on the trajectory of the global economic crisis. More and more, respected authorities on global finance and economics are weighing in with their dire predictions. Nouriel Roubini openly asks the question,  “Is Capitalism Doomed?”  Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian indicates that the bond markets are pricing in a double-dip recession. Equities trading in bourses throughout the world are experiencing levels of volatility not seen since the onset of the crisis in the summer and fall of 2008.

It is now just a remnant of pundits who still believe that the global economy “recovered” after the reckless expansion of sovereign debt following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. These proverbial neo-Keynesian optimists have chosen to shut their eyes and cover their ears. But others who can sense what is happening in advanced and major developing economies know that we are in the midst of  something that does not have a positve ending.