Blame it on the weather, the pundits are already chiming. But no amount of verbal acrobatics can disguise the fact that the U.S. economy experienced its worst performance in Q1 of 2014 since the dark days of 2009, following in the wake of the global economic and financial crisis. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, revised figures show the American economy contracted at a rate far worse than the originally reported decline of 1 percent; the updated figure is a  contraction in the first quarter of 2.9 percent.

The same spin masters claiming this very bad performance for the U.S. economy was due to unusually cold weather are already predicting a very strong rebound in the next quarter. However, if one looks deeply at the data released by the Commerce Department, a big factor in the Q1 contraction was a decline of 8.9 percent in exports. What is left unexplained by the “experts” is how a contraction in exports by nearly nine percent was created by cold weather conditions.

If Hillary Clinton runs for President of the United States  in 2016, see the video about the book that warned back in 2008 what a second Clinton presidency would mean for the USA:

CLICK ON IMAGE TO VIEW VIDEO Hillary Clinton Nude

The latest news from Iraq clearly has geopolitical implications. No less important are the economic ramifications.  The Iraq war, which began with the U.S. invasion in 2003, is entering a new phase, and perhaps far more dangerous territory.

A Salafist-Islamist  insurgent group which goes by the acronym in English of ISIS (and by other acronyms and names as well), said to be to the right of Al-Qaeda (if that is even possible), has seized Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul, with a population of approximately two million. ISIS has seized others towns and strategic locations, while boasting of a march on Baghdad. The Iraqi army appears to be crumbling.

Amid talk of the United States getting back into the Iraq war, or Iran intervening directly with its own military forces , the price of oil has begun to spike. Normally, any military conflict, especially in the Persian Gulf region, will elevate the per barrel price of oil. However, another factor is at play. Just as Iraq was approaching the pre-2003 level of petroleum extraction, the internecine conflict’s escalation into outright civil war threatens to torpedo any meaningful exports of Iraq’s crude oil in the future.

A disruption in the supply of Iraq’s oil on the world market could create a cascading effect on oil prices, already at $110 per barrel and climbing. It should be remembered that in the summer of 2008 oil’s climb to a price north of $140 per barrel was a key element in the unleashing of the global economic crisis, from which a feeble recovery is still underway. The global economy is  fragile and vulnerable to another oil shock.

Among all the calculations being weighed in Washington, Tehran  and elsewhere, policymakers must understand that the growing signs of disintegration of the unified Iraqi state, among other crises in the Middle East, may foreshadow a repetition of the oil price crisis of 2008. The unraveling of the American-installed Iraqi political structure may be a harbinger to a return to oil scarcity and elevated oil prices, with all the attendant negative effects on the global economy.

If Hillary Clinton runs for President of the United States  in 2016, see the video about the book that warned back in 2008 what a second Clinton presidency would mean for the USA:

CLICK ON IMAGE TO VIEW VIDEO Hillary Clinton Nude