Official statistics just released indicated a worse than expected decline in Germany’s GDP. The Q2 of negative 10.1 % follows a less sharp contraction in Q1. This is the most severe quarterly decline in economic activity in Germany since then end of the Second World War and the establishment of the Federal Republic. Germany is Europe’s largest and most successful economy, and the decline reflects the widespread economic damage being inflicted by the Coronavirus pandemic.
Optimists will point to a likely strong rebound in Q3, as economic activity picks up with a reduction in Covid-19 lockdown measures. Such a rebound is likely to be temporary. The renewal of Covid-19 outbreaks in various hotspots throughout Europe, and forecasts of a second pandemic wave this Fall, are predictive of future bad economic news. In addition, the export-dependent German economy will likely be buffeted by Coronavirus infection rate increases in many of its major export markets, in particular the United States.
The latest German economic data reinforces the growing consensus that the pandemic-driven global recession, already the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s, will likely evolve into a full-blown economic depression lasting many years.
Coronavirus has already unleashed a severe worldwide recession that is far worse than the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09. In the words of economist Nouriel Roubini, the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic resembled an asteroid striking the global economy.
The response of governments was inconsistent, but basically followed the following pattern; shut down much of the economy, accumulate unprecedented levels of debt to subsidize investors, businesses and laid-off employees, while hoping for the miracle of a quickly-developed vaccine. Amid the sea of debt-induced liquidity, pundits and policymakers boasted of a quick V-shaped recovery.’
Now we are witnessing in many countries a second-wave of the pandemic, in many cases only weeks after government officials boasted that coronavirus had been contained and that the economy could begin reopening. This, despite warnings from those more knowledgeable about the dynamics of a great pandemic that premature reopening of economic activity would greatly worsen the impact of a second wave of Covid-19, leading to repeated false openings followed by swift shutdowns of normal economic activity. These false starts and rapid lockdowns will actually worsen the negative impacts of coronavirus on the overall economy.
Now we are witnessing evidence that the pandemics is close to being out-of-control and spreading like wildfire in a growing number of countries, while sovereign debt , only months into the pandemic, is already at unprecedented levels. These factors further exacerbate the Global Economic Crisis now underway in tandem with the health crisis, with talk of a V-shaped recovery proving to be illusory, while a severe economic depression on the scale of the 1930s looks increasingly likely.
For the first time in “living memory,” Asia’s economy overall will shrink by at least 1.6% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. The last projection from the IMF had a forecast of flat growth. The update shows that the IMF sees worsening data impacting all of Asia in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The IMF concedes that no region, including Asia, will be immune from the ruinous impact of the Coronavirus on the global economy. Yet, though the IMF is predicting a global economic contraction of almost five percent in 2020, it is still forecasting a V-shape recovery in 2021 in excess of positive five percent.
With Covid-19 running an unpredictable course, with signs of a second-wave already present, it is being excessively optimistic to hope for a speedy economic recovery. In fact, even the IMF states it will take years for the economies of Asia and other regions to fully recover, in spite of rosy forecasts for 2021.