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Posts Tagged ‘ben bernanke’

Wall Street, Ben Bernanke and Illusions

August 24th, 2011 Comments off

 Today the Dow Jones rose by more than 300 points. This was not due to positive economic news; to the contrary, negative news drove the NYSE up. How is it that the cascading torrent of appalling economic data would raise cheers on Wall Street? In the bizarre economic and financial world of today, the computer program traders and investors on Wall Street are convinced that the worsening economic situation globally will compel Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, to unleash a third bout of quantitative easing. In the myopic universe of the Wall Street crowd, this is considered the most wonderful  thing that can happen on our planet.

The two bouts of quantitative easing already engaged in by the Fed have been, by consensus of most credible economists, ineffectual. What this mad money printing did accomplish was to inflate commodity prices, creating a drag on the global economy. But if at first you don’t succeed, try again, so say the Wall Street oligarchs. And so when the central bankers convene for their annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming the Wall Street oligarchs will be hoping and praying for QE3.  Only a clique infused with short-term greed and distorted illusions could believe that bad economic news leading to Bernanke unleashing another round of printing money will end the global economic crisis.

 

 

 

                 

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Appears Clueless as Global Economy Sinks

June 9th, 2011 Comments off

Alan Greenspan, former Fed Chairman and a prime facilitator of the U.S. housing bubble, appears in retrospect a scion of fiscal prudence in comparison with his successor, Ben Bernanke.  This disaster-prone Fed Chairman presided over the financial collapse of 2008, which came in the wake of his prediction that the housing bubble would not cause a recession, let alone a global financial meltdown. And this man is still the most powerful architect of U.S. monetary policy?

 In his recent speech delivered at the International Monetary Conference in Atlanta, Bernanke blamed everything but himself for what he concedes is anemic economic growth, which he knows all too well is being artificially propped up by the most expansive monetary and fiscal policies in human history. In the Fed Chairman’s world, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, weather conditions and other unpredictable “acts of God” are to blame, not the Federal Reserve’s polices, for the utter disaster that the U.S. and many other advanced economies are coping with.

While in Atlanta, Ben Bernanke made passing reference to the sharp rise in commodity prices, though without admitting that this was due largely to the Fed’s policy of quantitative easing. He then added the illogical assessment that inflation is “not broad based” in the economy. Really?

As he has done before, Bernanke made perfunctory remarks about the need for the policymakers to eventually bring down the U.S. federal government’s budget deficit. As he and his colleagues continue to propel the United States towards a fiscal train wreck, he holds the politicians with no power to rein in Bernanke with responsibility for preventing the future shocks that the Fed’s policies have in store for everyone.

The disconnect this man has with the real world is mind-numbing. One thing, however, we can be thankful for. At least Bernanke has avoided the personal behavior issues that led to the recent resignation of the head of the IMF. With Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, the question is all about his performance as Fed Chairman, and nothing else. On that score, history will probably judge President Barack Obama harshly for reappointing Ben Bernanke as Fed chairman.

 

 

 

 

 

Ben Bernanke’s Wrecking Crew Engineers Downward Spiral of the U.S. Dollar

May 2nd, 2011 Comments off

If anyone really believed that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was not deliberately destroying the intrinsic value of the American dollar through his recklessly loose monetary policies, the current downward spiral of the greenback is abundant evidence to the contrary. Most telling, despite severe fiscal problems in the Eurozone, even the wobbly euro is gaining strength in significant measure against the U.S. dollar.

It is not only against the basket of foreign currencies, including those considered weak, that the American dollar is winning the dubious race to the bottom. Commodities across the globe have risen sharply against the dollar. This is reflected not only in the price of known hedges against price inflation and currency manipulation such as gold and silver. A diverse range of resource commodities, including oil and natural gas, minerals and basic foodstuffs have increased in their dollar price. With the U.S. dollar remaining (for now) the global reserve currency, the morbidly inverse ratio between the plummeting value of the dollar and rising cost of commodities has had severe negative repercussions across the globe, both economically and politically. The current unrest sweeping the Arab world is at least in part due to rising food prices precipitated by Bernanke’s deliberate policy of eroding the value of America’s dollar.

My read of this situation is that the Federal Reserve is in a panic. They know that the American fiscal imbalance is unsustainable, and it seems Bernanke and company are deliberately eroding the value of America’s currency in order to default stealthily on the nation’s massive foreign debt, which the Fed knows can never be repaid, at least in terms of real value as opposed to nominal repayment. Inflation is the direct outcome of the Fed’s quantitative easing and monetization of the debt. The American taxpayer and consumer is being sacrificed, at whatever the cost, in order to inflate away that portion of the U.S. national debt which cannot be repaid.

The fools at the Federal Reserve really believe that China, OPEC and other foreign creditors are going to accept the destruction of their investment in U.S, Treasuries lying down, and that the U.S. dollar will forever remain the world’s reserve currency. I think that sooner rather than later future developments will render inoperative all the flawed assumptions of Ben Bernanke and his wrecking crew, otherwise known as the Federal Reserve.

2011 Economic Crisis: Disturbing Signs On The Horizon

December 29th, 2010 Comments off

As a new year is about to dawn,  despite (and perhaps because of) massive government and central bank intervention in advanced and major economies, worrying signs are proliferating along with the contrived optimism about a supposed rebound  in global economic growth. Among the many clouds on the horizon regarding the global economic outlook for 2011, here are three:

1. Greek sovereign debt crisis not cured by the massive Eurozone and IMF bailout. Knowledgeable observers have pointed out that mathematically, it is not possible for the Greek state to deflate its economy in line with deficit reduction commitments required under terms of the bailout package, while simultaneously engineering a miraculous return to robust economic growth at a level sufficient to service the exploding public debt. There is already word being leaked to the Greek press by government officials that after the current bailout package expires in 2013, Athens will seek to restructure its sovereign debt.

2.  Irish banking crisis far from over. After receiving a staggering level of bailout assistance from the EU and IMF to cover the country’s insolvency due to guaranteeing the obligations of Anglo Irish Bank ( along with all other banking institutions in Ireland), the Dublin authorities were forced to inject nearly $5 billion into Allied Irish Banks, another bankrupt institution. As with Greece, it seems almost a certainty that Ireland will eventually seek to restructure its public debt.

3.  China, the one ray of hope in the global economy due to massive government injections of liquidity that have led to high levels of supposed growth during the global economic crisis, is now beginning to raise interest rates in a frantic effort aimed at reining in  burgeoning levels of price inflation. This could lead to a tightening in the Chinese economy, combined with a catastrophic deflation in the Chinese real estate market. Any downturn in China will reverberate with dire impact on the overall global economy.

Other than these three items, no need to worry, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and a horde of policymakers assure us that their bouts of quantitative easing  and unprecedented levels of sovereign debt will somehow usher in a nirvana of good economic times. Unless, of course, you like I have no confidence in those who currently are the masters of our economic destiny.

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2011 Economic Forecast: I Predict 2011 Will Be A Bummer Of A Year Economically

December 19th, 2010 Comments off

There is an imponderable dichotomy between the economic forecasters on Wall Street and the ugly reality on Main Street. With the Dow Jones having surged more than 60% since the lows that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the onset of the global financial and economic crisis in the fall of 2008, there is increasing banter by Wall Street talking heads that the rally in equities reflects a logical analysis of the economic health of America and the conviction that the Great Recession is truly over and a return to robust economic growth is just around the corner. Call it the Street’s version of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s proverbial “green shoots,” laced with steroids.

That is Wall Street’s prediction of where the U.S. and global economy is headed. As for myself, I will stick with my own look into the economic future, found in my book, “Global Economic Forecast 2010-2015: Recession Into Depression.” The essence of my forecast was that 2010 would give an illusory impression of an exit from the Great Recession, fueled by a massive explosion in public indebtedness, the so-called stimulus spending engaged in by most major advanced and developing economies. However, I also forecasted that unemployment would remain at historic highs; that and the rising level of public debt in many advanced economies would lead to a worsening sovereign debt crisis in 2011, culminating in a catastrophic collapse in public finances in major economies, especially the United States. This, I surmise, will transform a recession into a global depression.

So we are left with two contradictory views of the economic future, with no room in between. According to Wall Street, 2011 will be a bumper year for the global economy, with impressive levels of quarterly growth in the United States. As for myself, I believe that 2011 will be an “Anus Horibilis,” as the Romans would say during the years of decline of their empire; a truly appalling bummer of a year in terms of global economic health.

 

Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve and the Road To Ruin

December 15th, 2010 Comments off

It is not the “Road To Morocco” ( for those who remember the classic film with Bing Crosby and Bob Hope) but he proverbial road to ruin that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is leading the U.S. economy towards, at flank speed. Under his leadership, the last meeting of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC of 2010 confirmed the zero interest rate policy being maintained, and the policy decision to purchase $600 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury debt. This, despite claims by many punch-drunk economists that the American economy is recovering, and at a heightened pace. Give Bernanke credit for one thing; he knows the supposed economic growth is not real, but rather marginal increments painfully extracted through massive public borrowing. But his solution, in effect creating even more public stimulus, this time through monetary policy, is totally antithetical.

Supposedly, Bernanke’s stratagem is to force down long-term interest rates through his $600 billion second round of quantitative easing. However, the bond market is reacting in a manner contrary to expectations. With Europe already mired in a deep sovereign debt crisis, the prospect of a surge in now record low interest rates on U.S. sovereign debt is becoming increasingly likely, due to the Fed’s policies. Should the U.S. encounter anything remotely like the spike on bond yields currently plaguing Europe, the game is up. Not even Bernanke could print enough money to cover the ruinous implosion an increasingly likely sovereign debt crisis will have on the already fragile American economy.

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U.S. Existing Home Sales Plummet By a Record 27 Percent

August 24th, 2010 Comments off

 

The American housing industry is once again in free fall. The latest figures, just released, indicate that in July existing home sales plunged by 27%, reflecting an annual pace of 3,830,000 home sales, according to the  National Association of Realtors. This is a fifteen year low, which had only been temporarily delayed by the Obama administration’s deficit-financed home purchase tax credit, now expired.

These figures are a disaster for the American economy of such a staggering level, not even Timothy Geithner or Ben Bernanke can put a positive spin on it. The housing industry is the center of gravity for the entire American economy, and its earlier demise was what unleashed the current global economic crisis. The gloomy data now out on existing home sales is another flashing red light, warning not only of a double-dip recession, but even more ominously, a prolonged economic depression.

Federal Reserve Begins Massive Monetization of U.S. Government Debt

August 11th, 2010 Comments off

In a step that will be one of the markers on the road to economic and financial catastrophe, the Federal Open Market Committee (otherwise known as the FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, made a bombshell policy decision on August 10, 2010, one fraught with dangerous long-term consequences for the American and global economy. In a policy being dubbed QE2, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC conceded that the so-called U.S. economic recovery has “slowed,” and required more stimulus from the Fed. However, with federal funds interest rates now effectively at zero, the only aspect of monetary policy left is money printing. Thus, the Federal Reserve, in effect, will use its printing press to buy long-term U.S. government debt.

Of course, that is not how the FOMC is positioning this major escalation in quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. In the dry, obtuse language that the obscurantists of the Federal Reserve love to engage in, the committee’s official statement said:

“To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities. The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.”

In  its first bout of heavy quantitative easing, in the wake of the implosion of the major Wall Street investment  banks in the fall of 2008, Ben Bernanke, utilizing his printing press, purchased $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and an additional $200 billion in debts owed by so-called government-sponsored enterprises, primarily Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This massive explosion in the Fed’s balance sheet has thus far failed to stimulate economic activity and retard a persistent deflationary recession. All that Bernanke has accomplished has been to create a new asset bubble, this time on Wall Street, with equities exploding in price far beyond their post-crisis lows. Beyond the Dow Jones index, however, the impact of Bernanke’s balance sheet expansion has been impotent in the face of economic realities, particularly a collapsing labor market and the contraction in consumer demand. The erosion in the M3 money supply, a statistic the Federal Reserve no longer publicly discloses, attests to the failure of its policies.

Now that the Federal Reserve admits, though in its typically obscure linguistic constructs, that a double-dip recession is becoming increasingly likely, Bernanke is going to enter a buying binge of long-term U.S. Treasuries. The hope is that this will stabilize financial markets, and somehow force liquidity into the economy. That, at least is the hope. Given Ben Bernanke’s track record, I would not bank on hope in the infallible judgement of the Federal Reserve and its FOMC.

What is likely to result from the QE2 phase of the Federal Reserve’s disastrous policymaking? In time, sovereign wealth funds will recognize Bernanke’s manoeuvre for what it is: monetization of the U.S. national debt. When that happens, Treasury auctions will begin to fail, and yields will advance. This will all put added pressure on the Fed to print even more dollars, and monetize an increasing proportion of the federal government’s debt. This will unquestionably inject liquidity into the U.S. economy. But this Federal Reserve monetary injection will be as beneficial as money printing was in Weimar Germany in the early1920s, or Zimbabwe more recently.

In deciding on a process that will lead to an ever-growing proportion of the U.S. national debt and yearly budget deficits being monetized by its printing press, the Federal Reserve, under the leadership of its chairman, Ben Bernanke, has taken a fateful step towards irredeemable economic and financial ruin, ultimately convulsing America with a savage, hyperinflationary depression. And, as history teaches us, severe economic depressions bring along other unanticipated consequences, often leading to political and social turmoil and even global war.

The Ben Bernanke Federal Reserve Semi-Annual Follies

July 22nd, 2010 Comments off

Twice yearly the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, must testify before Congress on monetary policy and the Fed’s economic outlook. Bernanke has achieved during his time as a principal policymaker on the U.S. economy an enviable reputation for poor forecasting and a unique ability to put a happy, optimistic face on the global economic crisis. However, is his most recent testimony before Congress, Bernanke gave hints that he is losing his laudable ability at spinning bad economic realities into “green shoots” of an imminent recovery.

Amid all the worthless Bernanke verbosity that the world has become accustomed to (e.g. “although fiscal policy and inventory restocking will likely be providing less impetus to the recovery than they have in recent quarters, rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth” ), there was a single sentence that betrays how even Bernanke is running scared that his policies of unprecedented public debt and quantitative easing are leading to disaster. The once pompously arrogant but now uncertain Fed chairman told Congress, “even as the Federal Reserve continues prudent planning for the ultimate withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation, we also recognize that the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain.”

After adding trillions of dollars to the national debt, more than a trillion dollars in worthless assets to the Fed’s balance sheet and opening up its subsidized discount window to the likes of Goldman Sachs, the best Bernanke can mutter to the politicians in Washington is, “the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain.”

If Bernanke is publicly admitting that the economic outlook for the United States is unusually uncertain, I think we can cross off his previous forecast about green shoots.

Ben Bernanke and the U.S. Budget Deficit: More Verbal Nonsense From the Federal Reserve

April 15th, 2010 Comments off

In his historic contribution to America’s fiscal imbalance, current Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has even surpassed the corrosive reputation of his predecessor, Alan Greenspan. It has been on Bernanke’s watch that the previous structural deficits of the U.S. federal government have been transformed into even more alarming structural mega-deficits. Bernanke knows that a fiscal firestorm is brewing. So how do you continue with policies that encourage annual deficits measured in trillions of dollars while looking responsible on the deficit issue? Why, just testify before Congress and speak eloquently of your serious concern about the deficit.

This is what the most powerful man in America, an individual who can make fiscal and monetary decisions that will bankrupt your children and grandchildren without interference from legislative or executive or judicial branches of government, had to say to the august members of Congress:

“Although sizable deficits are unavoidable in the near term, maintaining the confidence of the public and financial markets requires that policymakers move decisively to set the federal budget on a trajectory toward sustainable fiscal balance.”

Trajectory toward sustainable fiscal balance? The only clear trajectory I see is an irreversible rendezvous with national insolvency, sparking a catastrophic global economic depression.