Posts Tagged ‘GDP’

Economic Doomsday Coming For U.S. And Other Major Economies? Deficit Spending As Far As The Eye Can See

July 28th, 2021 Comments off

Canada’s Budgetary Officer, known as the PBO, recently  released a report that stated that unless major fiscal consolidation occurs in government spending, deficits at a high level are projected to continue until at least 2070. That is, high deficit spending is baked into the cake for the next half-century. That projection excluded likely future scenarios such as more pandemics, natural disasters and military conflict, not to mention internal issues. It is a dystopian prediction for government spending, and it is unsustainable.

The PBO projection for government spending is a mirror image that can be applied to every economy on the glove, in particular all the G7 countries.

No nation is as entrapped in high deficit spending to as a high degree as the United States. When the U.S. briefly went into budgetary surpluses in the latter years of the Clinton administration, the incoming George W. Bush presidency swiftly headed back into deficit spending due to the enactment of major tax reductions , particularly those affecting higher income earners. The rationale? The Vice President , Dick Cheney, told the GOP, supposedly the party of fiscal conservatism, that former president Ronald Reagan had “proved” that fiscal deficits “don’t matter.”

However, the low to mid single digit proportion of GDP reflected by the size of deficits has now morphed into  high single digits and even double digit fractions of national GDP since politicians throughout the world opened the spigot of sovereign debt spending, abetted by the near-zero interest policies of central banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve.

In the current fiscal year, the United States  federal government has generated  $3.1 trillion dollars in revenue and $5.3 trillion in spending, resulting in  a deficit of $2.2 trillion.  The current national debt has skyrocketed past $28 trillion. This figure represents  130 % of America’s GDP. By way of comparison, in 2001, only twenty years ago, the U.S. national debt was $5.8 trillion, and represented 55 % of GDP.

The trajectory regarding America’s-and many other nation’s-government spending  patterns are clearly and inalterably headed in the wrong direction. This cannot be sustained indefinitely. Already, inflation is raising its ugly head as a form of stealth taxation. At some point, probably when central bank are compelled by inflationary pressures to significantly raise interest rates, the whole illusory edifice will implode.

Sheldon Filger-blogger for

U.S. Economy Nosedived In First Quarter

May 30th, 2015 Comments off


The Commerce Department released revised data for the U.S. economy in Q1 of 2015. Instead of the disappointing 0.2 percent contraction, the Commerce Department is now reporting that America’s GDP contracted by a far worse 0.7 percent. This rate of negative growth clearly reveals severe and lingering weaknesses in the nation’s economic health, seven years after the onset of the global economic crisis.

As is usual, the pundits are blaming the weather, a rising dollar, the Greek debt crisis, everything but the kitchen sink. They also promise a strong rebound in Q2. However, what the pundits ignore is that the first quarter also witnessed a severe fall in oil prices, a factor that was predicted to be highly stimulating for the national economy and GDP growth. It seems that fundamental vulnerabilities still  ail the U.S. economy, a reality that simply cannot be ignored or spun away.



Hillary Clinton is running for President of the United States  in 2016. See the video about the book that warned back in 2008 what a second Clinton presidency would mean for the USA:



Hillary Clinton Nude

Hillary Clinton Nude

U.S. Economy Loses Steam; GDP Growth Stalls

April 30th, 2015 Comments off

Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department reveals that GDP growth in the United States contracted to an almost flat 0.2 percent in Q1 of 2015. This is virtually stall speed, and a sharp contrast to last summer, when officials proclaimed that America’s economy was experiencing sustained high GDP growth.

Typically, the policymakers and government officials will come up with a multitude of explanations for this poor measure of the American economy. No matter the spin, however, this is bad economic news, which surprised the most somber predictions of the experts.



If Hillary Clinton runs for President of the United States  in 2016, see the video about the book that warned back in 2008 what a second Clinton presidency would mean for the USA:



Hillary Clinton Nude

Hillary Clinton Nude


GDP Falls 3.8% In U.S. As Economic Meltdown Worsens

January 31st, 2009 Comments off
The U.S. Commerce Department has released preliminary figures for the 4th quarter of 2008, heralding a decline of 3.8% in GDP. As many analysts had forecast a Q4 contraction of at least 5%, on the surface the official figures could be perhaps spun by those taken to wishful thinking as “not as bad as feared.” Several headlines in the financial press actually conveyed this myopic fantasy. However, for once, even the usual Wall Street cheerleaders were not fooled by the “not as bad as we thought” mantra. In the first place, they know the government’s figures are preliminary and, like the unemployment numbers, are likely to be adjusted upwards once complete data for the last quarter is fully tabulated. Secondly, even the Commerce Department’s numbers indicate that the economic contraction in the world’s largest economy is much worse than negative 3.8 %.
The gap between what analysts predicted and what the government reported is explained by a statistical anomaly whereby expanding inventories of unsold goods are counted as “growth.” The growth of inventories “added” 1.3% to the GDP. This book-keeping exercise in imagined growth is due to the simple fact that consumer demand in the United States declined at a faster rate than businesses could cut back production and delivery. However, the lag between production and demand will not persist much longer, evidenced by the tsunami of employee layoffs that are now sweeping the United States. What this suggests is that the negative downturn for the first quarter of 2009 will be even more severe than otherwise.

Had the expansion of unsold or unwanted inventory not been factored in as GDP growth, than the Commerce Department would have reported a GDP decline of 5.1% for Q4 of 2008. It is likely that Q1 of 2009 will reveal an acceleration of GDP contraction of the American economy. is projecting that complete tabulation for the first quarter of 2009 will reveal a GDP contraction in the range of 6-7%.

What do these economic statistics mean in real terms? The answer is clear; the U.S. economy is in terminal free-fall. Even with the passage of the Obama stimulus plan, at best the U.S. can temporarily arrest 1-2% off the rate of annual GDP contraction. However, further erosion of the U.S. fiscal posture resulting from exploding structural deficits and the cumulative national debt will rapidly negate the very temporary boost from the stimulus package, while facilitating further catastrophic macroeconomic destruction.

The implosion of the world’s largest economy will ensure that the Global Economic Crisis is acute and of long duration. Policy responses thus far from political leaders and the financial elites that influence them are about as encouraging or realistic as inflating the U.S. GDP figures by counting the accumulation of unsold goods as evidence of economic growth and expansion. It appears that those in power have not learned much from the recent experience of counting subprime mortgage-backed securities as solid and secure assets.




$8.5 Trillion And Counting; Cost Of U.S. Economic Crisis Soars

December 1st, 2008 Comments off

The impact of the global economic and financial crisis on the United States has already cost potentially $8.5 trillion. Perhaps even more frightening, many more trillions of dollars could be added to the economic rescue bill, without certainty of success. Indeed, some economists are saying the U.S. is doomed to a horrific economic depression, no matter how much money the government borrows or prints.

In the past week the government allocated up to $300 billion to save Citigroup from certain implosion claiming that it was “too big to fail.”. This allocation, added to $150 billion and counting for AIG, more for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and other expenditures and loan guarantees currently add up to a staggering $8.5 trillion. This is more than half the entire U.S. gross domestic product in the past year.

President-elect Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress are planning an additional stimulus package of $500 billion to $700 billion. It is expected that the stimulus package will be one of the first bills passed by Congress after Barack Obama is inaugurated as the nation’s 44th president.

The United States federal budget deficit soared to $455 billion in the past fiscal year. With the bailout packages already enacted and additional spending being planned, economists are forecasting that the next fiscal year’s budget deficit could exceed one trillion dollars, a figure which would have defied belief only a year ago.


U.S. Economy In Free-Fall

November 28th, 2008 Comments off

As the American people feast on their Thanksgiving turkeys, there will be little to cheer about this holiday as the global economy in general, and the U.S. economy in particular, descend into the abyss. The latest economic data portents to a dismal future, with consumption spending plummeting, along with the continued and accelerating collapse of new homes sales to record lows amid falling consumer confidence. The unemployment rate is rising rapidly, one manifestation being the high initial claims for unemployment benefits. Simultaneously with all the other bad news, orders for durable goods such as cars, home appliances and factory equipment continues to fall through the floor.

Though the current economic news seems dismal enough, it is clear to many economists that the worst is yet to come. The global macro-economic data that will be forthcoming will define a staggering global economic recession that will defy policy prescriptions being enacted by panicky governments.

On January 20th, 2009, Barack Obama will be inaugurated as the 44th President of the United States. When Obama takes office, he will likely inherit from George W. Bush an enfeebled economy that is contracting at a rate in excess of 5%. The fourth quarter GDP data will certainly make dismal reading, as it will undoubtedly chronicle an economy that is in free-fall.