The Italian government just announced Q2 GDP figures, and they are, as they say in Rome, “Not so good.” Italy’s economy shrank by .0.7 percent, and by 2.5 percent from exactly a year ago. It is clear that Italy is immersed in a profound economic crisis, with dangerous ramifications for the entire Eurozone.
Italy is the largest economy within the group of five Eurozone members dubbed the PIIGS, nations with disastrous sovereign debt problems. Greece was the first, and Italy may be the last, but the Italian economy and its staggering sovereign debt are far too large for a bailout. That is why Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti is sounding increasingly desperate, and whispers are growing louder that the only hope of saving the euro is for the European Central Bank to print money at warp speed, in the process inducing massive inflation. In other words, inflating away the value of Europe’s sovereign debt, even at the expense of the currency’s value-and the integrity of life savings of ordinary citizens- may be the last grasp for Eurozone politicians who are so up against the wall, they may be tempted to undertake policy measures that until recently were deemed unthinkable.
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Not long after my last post warned how near Italy was to passing the 7 percent yield on its ten year government bonds, the dire red line has been passed. It should be pointed out that the crisis in Italy is not only based on market reaction to its horrid politics; the Italian economy is coming apart at the seams, with business bankruptcies proliferating amidst a demographic contraction that makes future economic growth in a time of austerity highly implausible.
Now that Italian bonds with ten year maturities are above 7 percent in yields, the Eurozone is reeling and global markets are swooning, after experiencing a maddening series of rallies based entirely on false hopes predicated on statements from hopelessly inept politicians.
Now, except for the most gullible, the consensus among economists who even previously expressed optimism about a global economic recovery is that the Eurozone is likely headed to some form of break-up. If Americans are laughing at their comrades across the Atlantic, they shouldn’t be. The economic and fiscal tragedy unwinding in Europe is a harbinger of what soon lies in wait for the United States, which has the mother of all fiscal imbalances.
