Global Economic Crisis

Despite all the rhetorical flourishes and grandstanding engaged in by that once august body, the U.S. Senate, when it came time for the rubber to meet the road, they voted overwhelmingly to reappoint Ben Bernanke to a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Let us be clear as to what those 70 senators voted for, in deciding to support President Obama’s preference that Bernanke remain at the helm of the Fed. Failure on a monumental scale has been conspicuously rewarded.

While Bernanke’s predecessor has been rightly condemned for his loose monetary polices and dogmatic conviction that unregulated market fundamentalism is always correct, the current Fed chairman has demonstrated continuity with those now discredited policies, along with a numbing myopia in failing to see a train wreck coming, despite ample warning.

In October 2005 Ben Bernanke appeared before Congress, only days before being nominated to succeed  Alan Greenspan.  Growing concern had already emerged regarding the unsustainability of what was obviously a massive housing asset bubble,  in large part facilitated by  the Fed’s easy monetary policies, fully supported by Bernanke. When questioned on the perception that the residential housing market was a growing danger to the nation’s economic health, the supposedly brilliant and perceptive Ben Bernanke stated that the escalation in U.S. housing  prices did not constitute an asset bubble, and was in fact based on sound economic fundamentals.

Sound economic fundamentals?

In an earlier post, I described Bernanke’s statement to Congress in 2005 as the worst economic prediction in recorded history. Yet this same flawed individual has now been  anointed by the U.S. Senate to have another go at deconstructing the U.S. economy.  A proven failure  now has another four years as head of the world’s most powerful central bank, with executive powers that in may respects exceed those of the president’s, with virtually no meaningful legislative oversight.

The justification for reappointing Ben Bernanke rests on a flimsy pretext. He supposedly saved the world from a global financial meltdown after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008. This ignores his conspicuous role as a principle architect of the global financial and economic crisis. In effect, he is glorified for indebting  generations of Americans yet unborn for covering the costs of his colossal errors in judgement. Furthermore, the Senate has failed to take cognizance that the very debt load they salute Bernanke for creating  as part of his “heroic” rescue mission has laid the seeds for a far more dangerous  phase of the global economic crisis. The risk of a paralyzing sovereign debt crisis is growing, raising the threat of national insolvency. The current fiscal crisis in Greece, and the economic purgatory being experienced by the people of Iceland, are clear warning signs on the economic horizon of what lies in wait for the American people. Maintaining Bernanke as Fed chairman magnifies the risk that a sovereign debt explosion will occur, creating a whole new level of economic devastation across the United States.

The lopsided vote by the U.S. Senate in favour of reappointing Ben Bernanke was  a clear triumph for the disaster-prone Ben Bernanke. As for the American people, this result is nothing less than a total, unmitigated defeat.

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The American weekly news magazine, Time, has an annual ritual of naming the man, woman, or people of the year. Its selection for 2009 is now official, and it is none other than  the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke. Here is Time magazine’s rationale for picking Bernanke:

“The main reason Ben Shalom Bernanke is Time’s Person of the Year for 2009 is that he is the most important player guiding the world’s most important economy. His creative leadership helped ensure that 2009 was a period of weak recovery rather than catastrophic depression, and he still wields unrivalled power over our money, our jobs, our savings and our national future. The decisions he has made, and those he has yet to make, will shape the path of our prosperity, the direction of our politics and our relationship to the world.”

I think the praise being heaped on Bernanke by Time is premature, to say the least. No doubt, the massive borrowing and money printing facilitated by the Fed did prevent a total financial collapse in 2008, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers-a disaster that Time conveniently forgets Bernanke’s monetary policies helped to facilitate. The consequences of Bernanke’s policies, all born of extreme desperation, are totally off the radar screen as far as Time Magazine is concerned. In my view, Bernanke has sown the seeds of a far worse economic catastrophe than that which he is praised for preventing. Bernanke has begun a process that will destroy the U.S. dollar, and bring about the sovereign fiscal collapse of the United States. In effect, Ben Bernanke has not saved the economy; he has postponed one disaster in order to enable a catastrophe that will be far worse.

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In the Financial Times Professor Roubini wrote a thoughtful and frightening piece on the implications of the U.S. dollar’s sinking value and its increasing role in the global carry trade. Given Nouriel Roubini’s track record  in offering a timely warning on the collapse of the subprime mortgage  bubble, his latest red flag should be looked at very closely.

In essence, the loose monetary policies of the Fed have  poured a tidal wave of liquidity into the world, in the form of U.S. dollars being offered at effectively zero interest rates while simultaneously being devalued. This explains the explosive role the American dollar is exercising on the carry trade. As Roubini points out, speculators can borrow cheap dollars at effectively negative interest rates, and plough this cheap currency into higher yielding assets available in foreign exchange. What Professor Roubini describes as the “mother of all carry trades” is building a global speculative bubble of vast proportions, and in a manner that is utterly unsustainable.

Roubini closes his sober article in the Financial Times with the following chilling warning:

“This unravelling may not occur for a while, as easy money and excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a while. But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash. The Fed and other policymakers seem unaware of the monster bubble they are creating. The longer they remain blind, the harder the markets will fall.”

* Global Economic Forecast 2010-2015: Recession Into Depression, now available. More information at:

http://www.createspace.com/3403422

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It is said that those whom the Gods intend to destroy they first drive mad. Is it not madness to reappoint to a second term leading the most important financial and economic institution on the planet, the Federal Reserve, a man with a forecasting record as disastrous as that of Ben Bernanke?

As a follow-up to my recent post on economic forecasting, below is the original Washington Post article by staff writer Nell Henderson, describing the intellect of Ben Bernanke in action during his presentation before Congress just prior to his nomination by President George W. Bush to succeed Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman.
Read this article in wonderment, and try to comprehend how the author of such a catastrophic forecast on the implications of the housing price boom in the U.S. could be chosen by President Barack Obama to serve another term.

 
Bernanke: There’s No Housing Bubble to Go Bust
Fed Nominee Has Said ‘Cooling’ Won’t Hurt
By Nell Henderson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, October 27, 2005; Page D01
Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, “largely reflect strong economic fundamentals,” such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households.

Bernanke’s thinking on the housing market did not attract much attention before Bush tapped him for the Fed job Monday but will likely be among the key topics explored by members of the Senate Banking Committee during upcoming hearings on his nomination.

Many economists argue that house prices have risen too far too fast in many markets, forming a bubble that could rapidly collapse and trigger an economic downturn, as overinflated stock prices did at the turn of the century. Some analysts have warned that even a flattening of house prices might cause a slump — posing the first serious challenge to whoever succeeds Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan after he steps down Jan. 31.

Bernanke’s testimony suggests that he does not share such concerns, and that he believes the economy could weather a housing slowdown.

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First there was the dotcom bubble. When it deflated, the U.S. Federal Reserve set interest rates at historic lows for far too long, in turn giving birth to a new asset bubble; residential real estate in America. We all know what happened to that asset bubble, and our world is still gripped with the consequences of its implosion.

How has the Fed responded? By establishing a near zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), which in turn has created a new asset bubble; equities. With the Dow Jones surging past 10,000 for the first time in a year, and Wall Street handing out executive bonuses at a rate that exceeds the  previous best year for their self-congratulatory excess, 2007, by 10%, one would think that the global economic crisis is over.

Perhaps we are just witnessing a new and potentially more dangerous asset bubble being inflated by government bailouts and monetary policy courtesy of the Federal Reserve that has gone berserk. With the U.S. dollar plummeting like a lead weight falling off a cliff, and banks providing depositors with virtually no interest, it seems that it is a matter of policy to encourage stock market trading and speculation.

The question that must be asked is this; when accelerating levels of unemployment, contracting consumer spending and elevated levels of loan foreclosures make it clear that the real economy is still in deep crisis, how sustainable will this latest asset bubble prove? I think recent history has already provided an answer.

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History is littered with flawed forecasts on economic trends. And where some have proven to have been surprisingly accurate in their glimpse into the financial and economic future, these projections have usually been scorned, until too late. Our current global economic crisis is a case in point.

In  my view, the most accurate long-term economic forecast of all time was provided by the legendary Renaissance French seer, Nostradamus, usually more renowned for his prophecies on the end of the world. In 1548, Nostradamus predicted, “From Albion’s shore shall come a marvellous contrivance: a carriage of silence bearing the arms of Rolles de Roi.”  Apparently, Nostradamus saw the creation of the Rolls Royce motor car in England, and its reputation for silent and prestigious personal transportation, more than three centuries before the invention of the internal combustion engine.

In contrast, one of the most inaccurate and inept economic forecasts of all time was delivered relatively recently, by the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke. In October 2005 Bernanke, who had recently succeeded Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Fed, issued a confident prediction that the unprecedented rise in U.S. home prices did not constitute an asset bubble, and was based on sound economic fundamentals. Oh well.

Forecasting economic trends is both highly difficult yet absolutely essential. Operating complex economies and businesses without accurate trend analyses is like flying blind without instruments. A major difficulty with many recent economic forecasts is that they are mired in ideology.

In the near future, I will be offering my own long-term economic forecast. It should be finalized within a few weeks. Readers of my blog should stay tuned for further information.

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Under the tutelage of Chairman Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve system has achieved the heights of power, while simultaneously the economy it  presides over has descended to the depths of  despair. This Zen paradox sums of the inexplicable success of Ben Bernanke. Having ignored or mistakenly assessed all the warning signs that the American housing bubble had burst and was set to take down the Wall Street investment banks, the panicky and massive policy measures undertaken by Bernanke in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year have made him the improbable hero of the global financial and economic crisis. With Bernanke set to be reappointed as Fed Chairman by President Barack Obama, it seems both he and the Federal Reserve have successfully consolidated their monetary and economic omnipotence.

Yet, some cracks in the foundations of the Fed’s  previously unassailable power have begun to emerge. Manhattan Chief U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska has issued a ruling in the case of Bloomberg LP v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System that marks the first challenge to the virtual dictatorship on monetary policy that Bernanke has been able to impose on Congress and the media. The lawsuit had been filed by the Bloomberg news organization after the Federal Reserve refused to disclose the recipients of $2 trillion in emergency loans it provided to troubled banks. The rationalization used by the Federal Reserve for its refusal to follow the legal requirements of the Freedom of Information Act truly defines the meaning of arrogance. If the American taxpayers, who are ultimately on the line for the loans, were to know the identity of the banks receiving financial aid from the Federal Reserve, they would act irresponsibly and perpetuate a run on those very institutions, claim Bernanke‘s minions. In other words, Nixonian logic applied to the massive indebtedness of the American taxpayer, who is not entitled to know for whom the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is being overloaded with toxic assets.

In its lawsuit, Bloomberg stated that disclosing the beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve‘s largesse is “central to understanding and assessing the government’s response to the most cataclysmic financial crisis in America since the Great Depression.”  However, Bernanke and company are not interested in illuminating the public in their understanding of the government’s role in the crisis, especially that of the Federal Reserve. Full disclosure might very well contradict the image being crafted by the Fed’s aggressive public relations program to portray Ben Bernanke as the saviour of the American economy and global financial system.

The Fed may still appeal Judge Preska’s ruling. However, if the ruling prevails and becomes precedent, it will mark a rare but important defeat for the Federal Reserve’s cone of silence and lack of transparency.

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At  its peak level of GDP, the U.S. economy depended on the American consumer for more than 70% of its output of goods and services. It has been the deleveraging of the American consumer, and to a growing extent his/her unemployment, that has been the catalyst of the U.S. recession. And not only America; the centrality of the U.S. consumer to the overall global economy has meant his pulling back on a debt induced shopping spree has sparked a worldwide synchronized recession.

The vast amount of money that Uncle Sam has borrowed to fund a nearly $800 billion economic stimulus program is supposed to substitute for the falloff in consumer demand, stop the avalanche of job losses and in the process regenerate consumer spending. The perception that this policy response was beginning to bear fruit has been the foundation of a recent flurry of statements emanating from the Federal Reserve, intimating that the recession was winding down, with recovery just around the corner. Both the Fed, Obama administration and Wall Street fully expected that the July retail sales figures would reflect a return to growth in consumer spending, juiced up by a taxpayer funding “cash for clunkers” gimmick aimed at kick-starting auto sales.

When the official sales figures were released by the Commerce Department, jaws dropped right through the floor. Instead of the .7% rise that was expected, July’s retail sales figures revealed a decline of .1%. However, the reality was much worse than even the posted decline, for the July figures were artificially inflated by a large increase in automobile related products due to “cash for clunkers.” Without the engineered car driven increase in consumer purchases, the actual retail sales contraction was .6%.

The ugly truth is that no matter how manipulated official economic statistics are, including the U3 unemployment number, the reality is that total consumer purchasing power, reflecting the number of hours worked multiplied by average wage, has declined to a level that makes it virtually impossible to recreate vigorous economic growth. Despite the happy talk from Washington,  I think it would be surprising if the Obama administration does not ask Congress for a second massive stimulus package before the end of the year.

Should a second stimulus package be proposed by President Obama, he may encounter stiff resistance from Republicans and fiscally conservative Democrats over concerns about the exploding national debt. However, it is likely that the Obama administration will place a higher priority on going into the 2010 mid-term elections with the ability to claim they have reduced unemployment rather than positioning themselves as fiscally responsible.

Higher deficits, however ,create the danger of inflation and much higher interest rates. Escalating interest rates will serve as a brake on economic expansion, defeating the purpose of deficit  funded stimulus programs. Now, in that situation, one can always resort to monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates. However, in this unique economic disaster our planet is currently navigating its way through, the Fed, as with many central banks throughout the world, has already reduced its funds rate to close to zero.

Could the Obama administration be running out of options? If fall retail sales continue to plummet and unemployment rises, things could get even more ugly for the problematic American economy.

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Alan Grayson is a Democratic Congressman  representing Florida’s 8th congressional district. He was elected in 2008, having beaten the 4-term Republican incumbent. Despite his freshman status, Grayson is already developing a reputation as a fierce advocate for taxpayer interests in the wake of massive bailouts of the financial sector that have been orchestrated by the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve. Serving on the Financial Services Committee and subcommittee that deals with capital markets, the congressman, having been a successful entrepreneur, clearly knows how to read a balance sheet and ask relevant questions. Thus, the stage was set when the Florida congressman had the opportunity to question Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke when the latter appeared before Congress to present an update on the economic crisis gripping America and much of the world.

Congressman  Grayson demanded details from Bernanke on a half trillion dollars in  liquidity swaps to foreign central banks undertaken by the Federal Reserve, apparently under the radar and in the dead of night. Demonstrating that he and his staff had done their fact-checking, Grayson noted that in 2007 these swaps with overseas central banks were a mere $24 billion, but had swelled to a staggering $553 billion in 2008 with the onset of the Global Economic Crisis.
The exchange between Grayson and Bernanke appears almost Kafkaesque in its reality-defying character, conveyed in the following, as a clearly uncomfortable Fed Chairman provides a tortured explanation regarding this half  trillion dollar transaction:

Bernanke: “Those are swaps that were done with foreign central banks…”
Grayson: “So who got the money?”
Bernanke: “Financial institutions in Europe and other countries…”
Grayson: “Which ones?”
Bernanke: “I don’t know.”
Grayson: “Half a trillion dollars and you don’t know who got the money?”
Bernanke: “Um, um, the loans go to the central banks and they then put them out to their institutions…”
Half a trillion dollars is a number so grandiose, it defies comprehension unless it is reduced to its ultimate simplicity. These credit swaps that exchanged American dollars for various foreign currencies were done without any consultation with elected officials, and amount to more than $1,800 for every man, woman and child residing in the United States. Under section 14 of the Federal Reserve Act, according to Chairman Bernanke, the Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) can engage in swapping U.S. dollars with foreign central banks without any limitations, at any time, without any requirement for congressional scrutiny. In other words,  “Congressman Grayson, why are you wasting my valuable time with these irrelevant questions,” Bernanke seemed to be implying through his frosty demeanour. Never mind that the Federal Reserve Act was originally passed in 1913, nearly a century ago.

“Is it safe to say that nobody in 1913 contemplated that a small little group of people would decide to hand out half a trillion dollars to foreigners,” Grayson pointed out. He raised as an example New Zealand, which received $9 billion from the Federal Reserve, an amount equal to $3,000 for every one of that nation’s citizens.

The congressman from Florida’s 8th district is to be commended for his focussed inquiries directed at the Fed Chairman, and steadfastness in the face of Bernanke’s evasiveness. More importantly, Grayson raises anew serious questions regarding the unlimited power placed in the hands of the Federal Reserve. The defenders of the Fed’s current position of fiscal omnipotence maintain that its independence from political influence must be preserved. However, the historical record, especially in the last 20 years, clearly shows that the Federal Reserve is influenced politically, either through the executive branch and the power of the President to reappoint the Fed Chairman, or through the large financial institutions on Wall Street, which have a level of access to Fed decision-making not available to any other category of citizens. More importantly, since the onset of the current financial and economic crisis, the Federal Reserve and its chairman have proven to be highly fallible, having made many errors in judgment, not the least being their original overly-optimistic pronouncements when the first tremors from the subprime meltdown arose.

Congressman Grayson’s penetrating inquiry serves as a reminder that the ultimate systemic risk to America’s financial system and economic superstructure stems from allowing a small, fallible clique to make speedy decisions involving incalculable sums of public money without any consultation with or checks and balances from the nation’s elected representatives. This is not only fiscal tyranny by any other name; it is a recipe for unintended and disastrous consequences.

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Larry Summers, Timothy Geithner and Ben Bernanke may be fated to go down in history as the three horsemen of the global financial and economic apocalypse. Though Fed Chairman Bernanke was inherited by the Obama administration, Geithner, Summers et al were the chosen economic team of the Obama administration. In effect, their selection was the single most important decision made by President Barack Obama  in response to the Global Economic Crisis. Regrettably, thus far their performance has been found wanting. Most disconcertingly, many of their public statements are Bush 43 redux, a smorgasbord of overly-optimistic platitudes utterly dichotomized from economic realities. Perhaps the one phrase that is most likely to haunt the Obama administration is one uttered originally by Ben Bernanke in the spring; those perennial “green shoots” that the Fed Chairman could see sprouting amid the recessionary quicksand engulfing the global economy.

Like a barbershop quartet, other senior Obama economic policymakers and advisors sang the happy melodies of these enigmatic green shoots. This happy talk was not without its effect; in large measure the bear market rally on Wall Street, what others have referred to as a “dead cat bounce,” was a by-product of investor optimism fuelled by the green shoots serenade flowing from the banks of the Potomac.

As Yogi Berra would say, “it’s déjà vu all over again.” George W. Bush’s economic team was also full of joyful verbiage, until the floor literally collapsed from under them with the disintegration of Lehman Brothers. In the case of the Obama economic crisis management team, however, this theory of hope triumphing over reality has been executed with even more creative dexterity. With all credible mathematical indicators revealing that most of the largest U.S. banks are functionally insolvent, the Treasury Department concocted a totally cosmetic set of so-called “stress tests” to “prove” that these insolvent banks were, actually, “solvent.” In addition, by forcing changes in the FASB rules through political intervention, some of these banks were even able to show a profit in their Q1 results.

The June unemployment numbers, however, are throwing a cold dose of reality in the direction of the pontificators of ephemeral green shoots. With the publicly released U3 Labor Department jobless report showing the level of U.S. unemployment having risen to 9.5%, and the less publicized but far more accurate U6 report showing actual unemployment and underemployment now at a staggering 16.5%, it is quite clear that the American economy, along with most of the planet, is still undergoing a painful contraction. The fact that one in six Americans is either unemployed or trapped in low-paying part-time employment due to the lack of full-time positions, is a far more significant economic indicator than short-term gyrations on Wall Street or periodic upward anomalies confronting an otherwise downward economic trend.

Amid all the green shoots fantasizing, it must be recalled that the United States economy depends on the spending of the U.S. consumer for more than 70% of its aggregate demand. The real significance of rising unemployment, exchanging full-time jobs for part-time employment and the fear factor inhibiting spending by those who think they may lose their jobs, is a radical contraction in consumer spending. It is this reality more than any other that is weighing heavily on the nation’s economic superstructure. Not only is joblessness rising. After years of American consumers spending more than they earned, they have now shifted radically towards a high level of savings. Transitioning from a negative savings rate, the U.S. wage earner now banks nearly 7% of his/her declining take- home pay, despite virtually zero interest being offered to savers due to the Federal Reserve’s zero interest monetary policy.

The American consumer is scared, and is not being seduced by talk of green shoots emanating from Washington. With consumer spending undergoing significant contraction not only in the United States but in virtually all major economies throughout the globe, increasing pressure will bear on securitized investments based on loan portfolios directly or indirectly linked to consumer spending. Retail and shopping mall mortgages will witness higher levels of defaults, in conjunction with the already virulent afflictions  hammering sub prime and prime residential mortgages, commercial office space mortgages, consumer loans and credit card debt.

The Obama administration apparently believed that the original $700 billion TARP Wall Street bailout passed by Congress in the last weeks of the Bush administration, and President Obama’s $800 billion stimulus spending bill, would suffice to stabilize the economy and put the brakes on the free fall in employment numbers. However, jobs are still being shredded each month by the hundreds of thousands, while banks still suffer from balance sheets saturated with toxic assets. The FDIC has already closed more U.S. banks this year than in all of 2008.

As I indicated in a recent piece, there is already serious discussion occurring in the corridors of power in Washington on the necessity of a second stimulus spending package. This is an acknowledgement that the Obama economic crisis team, thus far, has been an abject failure. However, with so much money already having been borrowed by the U.S. government on a variety of schemes supposedly aimed at saving the economy, further large doses of public debt bring along very dangerous negative implications of their own.

In a recent column in the Financial Times of London, Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO, the world’s largest bond trading firm, offered the following observation:
“The bottom line is a simple yet powerful one. The global crisis is morphing again. Having already contaminated (in a sequential and cumulative manner) housing, finance and the consumer, it is now threatening the potency and credibility of the economic policy making apparatus. As far as I can see, there are no first best policy responses that are readily available and easy to implement. Instead, the economy will continue to struggle, navigating both the adverse implications of last year’s financial crisis and the unintended consequences of the experimental policy responses. Given the inevitable socio-political dimensions, this story will play out well beyond the realm of the economy, policymaking and markets.”

Mohamed El-Erian is not offering green shoots, but he does speak the truth. Unfortunately, the truth is so bitter, it is unlikely that President Obama’s principal economic advisors will face up to the harsh and even brutal realities of the Global Economic Crisis until it is far too late for any policy response to be effective.

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