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Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis a Growing Global Danger

February 14th, 2010 Comments off

In my book, “Global Economic Forecast 2010-2015: Recession Into Depression,” I project that a growing sovereign fiscal crisis will transform the current Great Recession into a synchronized global depression. The events currently transpiring in the Eurozone are early indicators that my forecast is on track.
 
At the recent summit of European Union leaders in Brussels, which included the head of the European Central Bank, the PR spin doctors released what can best be described as ambiguity in the form of a communiqué, offering unspecified assurances that the Eurozone’s major actors will not permit Greece to succumb to its current sovereign debt crisis. The hope was that the markets would buy this assurance, thus preventing a further slide in the euro.

Not only are the markets, at least terms of the euro’s relative value, not being reassured by the happy talk that emanated out of Brussels; upon his return to Athens, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou  was harshly critical at the lukewarm words of EU reassurance. He said, “in the battle against the impressions and the psychology of the market, it was at the very least timid, ” in referring to the EU communiqué.

The bottom line is that without a massive bailout by the big guns in the Eurozone, in particular Germany and France, Greece faces fiscal collapse, which in turn will prove destructive to the whole Eurozone. However, if indeed Greece is bailed out, a host of other insolvent EU members using the euro will be lining up for their bailouts. Even ignoring the feelings of the German and French taxpayers (which is not politically tenable) there simply is not fiscal capacity within the Eurozone to backstop the other potential sovereign basket cases.

I foresee no possible scenario that allows for a soft landing from this escalating sovereign fiscal and debt crisis.