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Posts Tagged ‘third quarter GDP’

U.S Economy Grew At Only Two Percent In Third Quarter of 2015

December 23rd, 2015 Comments off

The U.S. Commerce Department revised slightly downward its already meager assessment of the third quarter of 2015. The updated data reveals that in Q3 the American economy grew at only 2 percent. Overall, the first three quarters of 2015 indicated GDP growth in the United States of two percent. Unless there is an unexpected and massive pickup in Q4, the overall rate of GDP growth  in the U.S. will remain at about 2 percent for 2015.

Marginal growth, far below potential, has been the reality since the “recovery” from America’s Great Recession of 2008, sparked by the global economic and financial crisis. Despite unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, the “recovery” still only generates a level of subpar growth that is not only counter to previous  recoveries, but is at virtual stall-speed. As the Fed begins to ramp up interest rates after nine years, should another major recession strike the U.S. economy, there are no quivers left in the arsenal of government policy measures.

 

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The Incredible Shrinking Third Quarter U.S. GDP Figures

December 24th, 2009 Comments off

It was with triumphant fanfare that the Obama administration initially announced that the Q3 results for the U.S. economy showed a robust 3.5% annualized growth, signalling and end to the Great Recession. Predictably, the Dow Jones index soared. Then, somewhat latter, a revised number came in from the Bureau of Economic Analysis; the Q3 GDP growth was a much more modest 2.8%, indicative of a sluggish recovery, at best. But even that is not the end of the story.

A second revision has now been released from the BEA, and it is even more anaemic, a mere 2.2 %. God only knows what another revision might reveal. However, even if the 2.2% positive growth figure holds, it must be recognized that is it based on gimmickry such as the infamous “Cash for Clunkers” program, which merely pushed demand for automobiles forward, in the process artificially inflating the Q3 number. As much as 1.45% of the 2.2% growth came from increased automotive sales due to this boondoggle. Subtract gimmicks and the vast level of increased government spending based on adding substantially to the national debt from the equation, and it becomes clear that the real economy of the United States is still in recession.

 

 

For More Information on “Global Economic Forecast 2010-2015” please go to the homepage of our website, http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com   

Third Quarter GDP Growth Figures Are Meaningless: Why The U.S. Remains In Recession

October 30th, 2009 Comments off

As if on cue, the Dow Jones index soared to the skies in sequence with the Commerce Department’s triumphant announcement that the third quarter GDP growth in the United States was a robust  3.5 %. After 4 consecutive quarters of economic contraction, the pronouncement that the American economy was now growing, and at a stronger rate than many experts had forecasted, the cheerleaders on Wall Street are celebrating the end of the recession. Hallelujah, the Great Recession is over, the stimulus package has worked!

Not so fast.

Let us journey back into recent history of just over one year ago. It is August 28, 2008 and the Commerce Department has just released its revised growth figures for the second quarter of 2008. It turned out, according to the statisticians at  the Commerce Department, that the American economy grew at a much faster pace than originally reported. The revised Q2 GDP growth figure for 2008 was 3.3%, nearly identical with the Q3 figures now being reported in 2009. The pundits rejoiced at this magnificent economic news, proclaiming that these numbers reflected the success of the $150 billion deficit-driven  stimulus package approved by Congress at the beginning of the year. Analysts proclaimed that the impressive growth figures for  Q2 of 2008 meant that the U.S. economy had dodged a bullet, and thanks to loose fiscal and monetary measures, there would be no recession.

Two weeks after the release of the revised and supremely optimistic quarterly growth figures by the Commerce Department, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, the global financial system went into cardiac arrest and a synchronized recession struck virtually every economy on the face of the earth.

Before celebrating the glorious Q3 numbers for the U.S. economy, I recommend that prudent observers reflect on the massive levels of public indebtedness required to create the accounting metrics that can demonstrate economic growth simultaneously with the devastation of the real economy  and continuing increases in an already staggeringly high level of unemployment. Furthermore, digest the reality that car sales generated by the recent “cash for clunkers” program contributed nearly  1.7% of the 3.5% growth in GDP in Q3. Then, looking at the recent history referred to above, ask the hard questions on how sustainable the trajectory suggested by the third quarter numbers really is.

In my view, the 3.5% Q3 numbers of 2009 are as reliable an indicator of future economic growth as were the 3.3% GDP growth figures in 2008. As George Santayana stated, those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it.

 

Global Economic Forecast 2010-2015: Recession Into Depression

For More Information on “Global Economic Forecast 2010-2015” please go to the homepage of our website, http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com